Team Profiles & Context
Iowa Hawkeyes (18-5, 8-4 Big Ten)
- Iowa enters riding a 6-game winning streak, its best stretch of the season.
- The Hawkeyes currently sit in the upper tier of the Big Ten standings and are aiming to build resume strength for postseason consideration.
- Iowa won the earlier season matchup 83-64 at home on Dec. 6, 2025 behind strong shooting and volume from beyond the arc.
- Bennett Stirtz has been elite recently, averaging 26.2 points per game over the last stretch and shooting career-high splits (48.6% 3-pt, 89.5% FT).
Metrics to Watch (typical trends):
- Scoring: Iowa’s offense has been clicking, with multiple players capable of busting defenses.
- Shooting Efficiency: If Iowa hits its threes at rate seen in December and vs Northwestern, they control the pace.
- Turnovers: Forcing Maryland into contested or hurried possessions is crucial.
Maryland Terrapins (9-14, 2-10 Big Ten)
- Maryland comes in with significantly worse record and conference struggles, though it did snap a skid with a 67-62 win at Minnesota on Sunday.
- Their offense often leans heavily on guard play from David Coit — key in late minutes vs Minnesota.
- The Terrapins historically have a decent head-to-head edge over Iowa in past seasons, but recent results skew in Iowa’s favor, especially this season.
Metrics to Watch (typical trends):
- Close Games: Maryland is capable of hanging in the middle quarters but often struggles to keep pace late.
- Efficiency: Their shooting percentages and assist rates need a big jump to outscore Iowa.
Injury & Availability Notes
Iowa
- The Hawkeyes have no major injuries reported today impacting availability.
- A prior season-ending ACL injury occurred to senior Taylor McCabe, but he is already ruled out for the year.
- Depth remains a factor — Iowa relies heavily on its rotation being healthy to sustain scoring output.
Maryland
- Pharrel Payne, a high-usage forward and major scoring/rebounding presence earlier in the season, has been out since mid-December due to injury (and has not returned).
- Without Payne inside, Maryland’s offense is less potent in the paint and becomes more perimeter-dependent.
Key Matchups & Game Flow Factors
Guard Play & Scoring
- Bennett Stirtz (Iowa) vs David Coit (Maryland) — both teams lean on their lead scorers; Stirtz’s hot shooting could force Maryland to over-help, opening driving lanes and kick-outs.
- Stirtz’s ability to score off the catch and creation will test Maryland’s perimeter D.
Tempo & Possessions
- Iowa will likely push the pace and score early, while Maryland’s hope is to slow it, get transition stops, and convert selectively.
Home Court for Maryland
- Playing at Xfinity Center gives Maryland a small home boost, but recent trends favor Iowa’s efficiency advantage.
Data-Driven Trends
- Iowa’s six-game winning streak, combined with a strong offensive profile and balanced scoring, gives them a clear edge.
- Maryland’s recent win was competitive, but their overall conference record (2-10) underscores inconsistency.
- In the early meeting this season, Iowa shot efficiently and held Maryland below 65 points.
Predicted Final Score (Model Projection)
Based on trends, efficiency metrics, and pace of play:
Iowa 77— Maryland 63
This projection assumes Iowa maintains offensive efficiency and Maryland struggles to keep up without its top forward and consistent depth scoring.
Summary
Strengths Favoring Iowa
- Hot scoring guard play
- Good road performance of late
- Proven ability to beat Maryland convincingly earlier in season
Challenges for Maryland
- Injury to key interior player
- Inconsistent scoring without Payne
- Defensive pressure likely exploited by Iowa’s shooters
Game Outcome Outlook: Iowa likely controls pace and scoring, with Maryland needing a major performance swing to stay within striking distance.